A Bayesian integrated population dynamics model to analyze data for protected species

Managing wildlife-human interactions demands reliable information about the likely consequences of management actions. This requirement is a general one, whatever the taxonomic group. We describe a method for estimating population dynamics and decision analysis that is generally applicable, extremely flexible, uses data efficiently, and gives answers in a useful format. Our case study involves bycatch of a protected species, the Northeastern Offshore Spotted Dolphin (Stenella attenuata), in the tuna fishery of the eastern Pacific Ocean. Informed decision-making requires quantitative analyses taking all relevant information into account, assessing how bycatch affects these species and how regulations affect the fisheries, and describing the uncertainty in analyses. Bayesian analysis is an ideal framework for delivering information on uncertainty to the decision-making process. It also allows information from other populations or species or expert judgment to be included in the analysis, if appropriate. Integrated analysis attempts to include all relevant data for a population into one analysis by combining analyses, sharing parameters, and simultaneously estimating all parameters, using a combined objective function. It ensures that model assumptions and parameter estimates are consistent throughout the analysis, that uncertainty is propagated through the analysis, and that the correlations among parameters are preserved. Perhaps the most important aspect of integrated analysis is the way it both enables and forces consideration of the system as a whole, so that inconsistencies can be observed and resolved

Ground-based detection of a cloud of methanol from Enceladus: When is a biomarker not a biomarker?

Saturn's moon Enceladus has vents emerging from a sub-surface ocean, offering unique probes into the liquid environment. These vents drain into the larger neutral torus in orbit around Saturn. We present a methanol (CH3OH) detection observed with IRAM 30-m from 2008 along the line-of-sight through Saturn's E-ring. Additionally, we also present supporting observations from the Herschel public archive of water (ortho-H2O; 1669.9 GHz) from 2012 at a similar elongation and line-of-sight. The CH3OH 5(1,1)-4(1,1) transition was detected at 5.9 sigma confidence. The line has 0.43 km/s width and is offset by +8.1 km/s in the moon's reference frame. Radiative transfer models allow for gas cloud dimensions from 1750 km up to the telescope beam diameter ~73000 km. Taking into account the CH3OH lifetime against solar photodissociation and the redshifted line velocity, there are two possible explanations for the CH3OH emission: methanol is primarily a secondary product of chemical interactions within the neutral torus that (1) spreads outward throughout the E-ring or (2) originates from a compact, confined gas cloud lagging Enceladus by several km/s. We find either scenario to be consistent with significant redshifted H2O emission (4 sigma) measured from the Herschel public archive. The measured CH3OH:H2O abundance (> 0.5 per cent) significantly exceeds the observed abundance in the direct vicinity of the vents (~0.01 per cent), suggesting CH3OH is likely chemically processed within the gas cloud with methane (CH4) as its parent species.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in the International Journal of Astrobiology (IJA

Modelo bayesiano integrado de dinámica de poblaciones para el análisis de datos de especies protegidas

La gestión de las interacciones que se producen entre la flora y fauna y los seres humanos requiere disponer de información fiable acerca de las consecuencias probables que generarán las acciones de gestión. Este requisito es de carácter general, con independencia del grupo taxonómico. En el presente artículo describimos un método para estimar parámetros de dinámica de poblaciones y de toma de decisiones, de aplicación general, extremadamente flexible, que utiliza datos de un modo eficiente y proporciona respuestas en un formato útil. Nuestro ejemplo está relacionado con la captura accidental de una especie protegida, el delfín moteado (Stenella attenuata), en las pesquerías de atún de la costa este del océano Pacífico. Una toma de decisiones bien fundamentada requiere disponer de análisis cuantitativos que tomen en consideración toda la información relevante, permitiendo evaluar cómo afecta la captura accidental a estas especies y cómo afecta la normativa a las pesquerías, además de describir la incertidumbre en los análisis. El análisis bayesiano constituye un marco idóneo para proporcionar información sobre la incertidumbre que acompaña al proceso de toma de decisiones. Además de ser adecuado, permite incluir información acerca de otras poblaciones o especies en los análisis, así como un criterio experto. El análisis integrado pretende incluir en un único proceso todos los datos relevantes de una población, combinando análisis, compartiendo parámetros y estimando el conjunto de dichos parámetros de forma simultánea mediante el empleo de una función objetiva combinada. También garantiza que las presuposiciones del modelo y las estimaciones de parámetros sean coherentes a lo largo de todo el análisis, que la incertidumbre se transmita a través del mismo, y que se mantengan las correlaciones entre los distintos parámetros. Quizá el aspecto más relevante del análisis integrado sea el modo en que permite y obliga a considerar el sistema como un todo, de forma que es posible observar y resolver las posibles contradicciones.Managing wildlife–human interactions demands reliable information about the likely consequences of management actions. This requirement is a general one, whatever the taxonomic group. We describe a method for estimating population dynamics and decision analysis that is generally applicable, extremely flexible, uses data efficiently, and gives answers in a useful format. Our case study involves bycatch of a protected species, the Northeastern Offshore Spotted Dolphin (Stenella attenuata), in the tuna fishery of the eastern Pacific Ocean. Informed decision–making requires quantitative analyses taking all relevant information into account, assessing how bycatch affects these species and how regulations affect the fisheries, and describing the uncertainty in analyses. Bayesian analysis is an ideal framework for delivering information on uncertainty to the decision–making process. It also allows information from other populations or species or expert judgment to be included in the analysis, if appropriate. Integrated analysis attempts to include all relevant data for a population into one analysis by combining analyses, sharing parameters, and simultaneously estimating all parameters, using a combined objective function. It ensures that model assumptions and parameter estimates are consistent throughout the analysis, that uncertainty is propagated through the analysis, and that the correlations among parameters are preserved. Perhaps the most important aspect of integrated analysis is the way it both enables and forces consideration of the system as a whole, so that inconsistencies can be observed and resolved

Enhanced Accessibility for People with Disabilities Living in Urban Areas

[Excerpt] People with disabilities constitute a significant proportion of the poor in developing countries. If internationally agreed targets on reducing poverty are to be reached, it is critical that specific measures be taken to reduce the societal discrimination and isolation that people with disabilities continue to face. Transport is an important enabler of strategies to fight poverty through enhancing access to education, employment, and social services. This project aims to further the understanding of the mobility and access issues experienced by people with disabilities in developing countries, and to identify specific steps that can be taken to start addressing problems. A major objective of the project is to compile a compendium of guidelines that can be used by government authorities, advocacy groups, and donor/loan agencies to improve the access of people with disabilities to transport and other services in urban areas

Partnerships to improve access and quality of public transport: guidelines

This book presents findings from project R7786 Partnerships to improve access and quality of urban public transport for the urban poor carried out by the authors as part of the Knowledge and Research (KaR) programme of the Infrastructure and Urban Development Department, Department for International Development (DFID) of the British Government. The purpose of the project was to identify, explore, and document critical issues in the provision of transport services for and in low-income settlements in developing countries. The identified issues can be used at policy and operational levels to provide better transport services to low-income communities in urban areas. In the research methodology, a sustainable livelihoods framework was used to set the research framework. The print publication comes with a CD containing pdf files of all publications in this series including case studies from Faisalabad, Pakistan; Colombo, Sri Lanka; and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Improving access and quality of public transport services through partnerships

Access to affordable public transport services is critical for the urban poor as it offers a way out of economic and financial deprivation and social and physical isolation. Urban public transport is a key link to access other services such as health and education facilities and other livelihood assets needed to sustain individual and community development. The paper reports the findings of a major study which was undertaken in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Tanzania. The primary objective of the study was to produce Guidelines for use by policy makers and urban public transport operators to ensure that the poor can enjoy improved access and quality of public transport in the future. The Guidelines suggest that a better understanding is required of the inter and intra- linkages of public transport and its impact on other services required by the poor to sustain their livelihoods. This can be assisted through relationships being established between several agencies /organizations which can lead to formal and informal partnerships being developed

An ALMA Survey of CO isotopologue emission from Protoplanetary Disks in Chamaeleon I

The mass of a protoplanetary disk limits the formation and future growth of any planet. Masses of protoplanetary disks are usually calculated from measurements of the dust continuum emission by assuming an interstellar gas-to-dust ratio. To investigate the utility of CO as an alternate probe of disk mass, we use ALMA to survey $^{13}$CO and C$^{18}$O J = $3-2$ line emission from a sample of 93 protoplanetary disks around stars and brown dwarfs with masses from 0.03 -- 2 M$_{\odot}$ in the nearby Chamaeleon I star-forming region. We detect $^{13}$CO emission from 17 sources and C$^{18}$O from only one source. Gas masses for disks are then estimated by comparing the CO line luminosities to results from published disk models that include CO freeze-out and isotope-selective photodissociation. Under the assumption of a typical ISM CO-to-H$_2$ ratios of $10^{-4}$, the resulting gas masses are implausibly low, with an average gas mass of $\sim$ 0.05 M$_{Jup}$ as inferred from the average flux of stacked $^{13}$CO lines. The low gas masses and gas-to-dust ratios for Cha I disks are both consistent with similar results from disks in the Lupus star-forming region. The faint CO line emission may instead be explained if disks have much higher gas masses, but freeze-out of CO or complex C-bearing molecules is underestimated in disk models. The conversion of CO flux to CO gas mass also suffers from uncertainties in disk structures, which could affect gas temperatures. CO emission lines will only be a good tracer of the disk mass when models for C and CO depletion are confirmed to be accurate.Comment: accepted for publication in Ap

The JCMT Gould Belt Survey: the effect of molecular contamination in SCUBA-2 observations of Orion A

Thermal emission from cold dust grains in giant molecular clouds can be used to probe the physical properties, such as density, temperature and emissivity in star-forming regions. We present the SCUBA-2 shared-risk observations at 450 $\mu$m and 850 $\mu$m of the Orion A molecular cloud complex taken at the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT). Previous studies showed that molecular emission lines can contribute significantly to the measured fluxes in those continuum bands. We use the HARP $^{12}$CO J=3-2 integrated intensity map for Orion A in order to evaluate the molecular line contamination and its effects on the SCUBA-2 maps. With the corrected fluxes, we have obtained a new spectral index $\alpha$ map for the thermal emission of dust in the well-known integral-shaped filament. Furthermore, we compare a sample of 33 sources, selected over the Orion A molecular cloud complex for their high $^{12}$CO J=3-2 line contamination, to 27 previously identified clumps in OMC-4. This allows us to quantify the effect of line contamination on the ratio of 850 $\mu$m to 450 $\mu$m flux densities and how it modifies the deduced spectral index of emissivity $\beta$ for the dust grains. We also show that at least one Spitzer-identified protostellar core in OMC-5 has a $^{12}$CO J=3-2 contamination level of 16 %. Furthermore, we find the strongest contamination level (44 %) towards a young star with disk near OMC-2. This work is part of the JCMT Gould Belt Legacy Survey.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures, Accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (MNRAS

The National Food Consumption Survey (NFCS): South Africa, 1999

Objective: The aim of the National Food Consumption Survey (NFCS) in South Africa was to determine the nutrient intakes and anthropometric status of children (1-9 years old), as well as factors that influence their dietary intake. Design: This was a cross-sectional survey of a nationally representative sample of all children aged 1-9 years in South Africa. A nationally representative sample with provincial representation was selected using 1996 Census information. Subjects: Of the 3120 children who were originally sampled data were obtained from 2894, a response rate of 93%. Methods: The sociodemographic status of each household was assessed by a questionnaire. Dietary intake was assessed by means of a 24-hour recall and a food-frequency questionnaire from the caregivers of the children. Food purchasing practices were determined by means of a food procurement questionnaire. Hunger was assessed by a modified hunger scale questionnaire. Nutritional status was determined by means of anthropometric measurements: height, weight, head circumference and arm circumference. Results: At the national level, stunting (height-for-age below minus two standard deviations (< -2SD) from the reference median) was by far the most common nutritional disorder, affecting nearly one in five children. The children least affected (17%) were those living in urban areas. Even with regard to the latter, however, children living in informal urban areas were more severely affected (20%) compared with those living in formal urban areas (16%). A similar pattern emerged for the prevalence of underweight (weight-for-age < -2SD), with one in 10 children being affected at the national level. Furthermore, one in 10 (13%) and one in four (26%) children aged 1-3 years had an energy intake less than half and less than two-thirds of their daily energy needs, respectively. For South African children as a whole, the intakes of energy, calcium, iron, zinc, selenium, vitamins A, D, C and E, riboflavin, niacin, vitamin B6 and folic acid were below two-thirds of the Recommended Dietary Allowances. At the national level, data from the 24-hour recalls indicated that the most commonly consumed food items were maize, sugar, tea, whole milk and brown bread. For South African children overall, one in two households (52%) experienced hunger, one in four (23%) were at risk of hunger and only one in four households (25%) appeared food-secure. Conclusion: The NFCS indicated that a large majority of households were food-insecure and that energy deficit and micronutrient deficiencies were common, resulting in a high prevalence of stunting. These results were used as motivation for the introduction of mandatory fortification in South Africa. © The Authors 2005.Conference Pape